Sunday, May 21, 2017

Houseboat model

This is work in progress a houseboat for a game.

Friday, March 24, 2017

4 memes showing the anarchist vacuum

4 memes showing the anarchist vacuum.
Someone posted this on Facebook:

It is very very libertarian but it is sadly wrong. The anarchist vacuum problem. No safeguards.
I fixed it making another version.
Yes its more complicated but that's the point. The free market is not a void or a magic fairy or even an invisible hand. We can't predict all the out comes but we can identify some of the known mechanisms.  

Then later in another facebook discussion a similar one was added:
Without government, who would provide _________?

 It does not deal with the fundamental reasons for taxation in the first place, the assurance problem. So I fixed that one too.

In both cases anarchists are attempting to replace something with nothing. Generating huge risks and making their policy positions unsaleable to the majority of voters. 

I have yet to find a good one on foreign policy. When I do I'll fix it and add it.

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Trumpism 101

Trumpism 101

Trump tweets something insane early in the morning.

Social media explodes.

The left explodes and calls Trump fascist!

The MSM makes sure everyone reads the tweet by the morning news and points out how dangerous it is.

The left is still busy swearing at Trump.

Conservative and libertarian sites point out that Trump's plan will fail and points out their solution.

Legislation miraculously matching the conservatarian solution promptly shows up pre-drafted in congress.

They vote, it passes. Trump signs on the same day.

The Democrats and RINO's go on CNN to proudly announce that they have dodged the bullet and have blocked Trump.

The left goes WTF just happened??? They're still looking for the text of the legislation.
The libertarians say "no far that's our policy from 1990!" They're right.

A few people like me talk about moved goal posts and bait and switch tactics. It's our turn now.

Trump and his advisers go over their list of 'spontaneous' tweets for next week. 

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Bypassing Lynch.

Has James Comey just bypassed Lynch and Obama in one fell swoop? By outlining the evidence, showing she is guilty and then saying he was not going ahead with a recommendation of a charge. He has booked himself an appointment with congress. Several congressmen have contacted him. This completely by passes the Justice department, Loretta Lynch and the whole Obama administration.

This has resulted members of the House and Senate Judiciary committee calling within minutes. Jason Chaffetz has already set up meetings.

There is no precedent for impeaching an ex government officer but by setting it up as an enquiry into the Comey statement he has created a situation where he, Comey, the other FBI staff, can speak freely in public and Hillary and her staff can be called by congress under oath.

Note this is the house committee not the Senate where it may be seen as in conflict because Ted Cruz is still in the running for Republican presidential nominee. Cruz of course has demanded all the evidence be made available to congress. This means the James Comey can't hand over originals to the Justice department. Loretta Lynch has openly said she would rather shred the files rather than prosecute her friend Hillary.

If Comey had recommended a prosecution then Lynch could have killed the case within hours or days. Well before the Democratic party convention and the election. By openly redefining the law he forces congress to act and puts the case into the highest courtroom avaliable, congress itself.

The question of intent becomes the the key subject of debate and that goes directly to the question of motivation, Hillarys, Huma Abedin, and other staff. Why was it convenient to go outside the secure systems? Why did they consistently refuse offers to secure their systems; both the servers and the blackberries? We all know the reasons that Hillary had? Freedom of information requests. An illegal reason. There may be another reason. Huma Abedin has family ties to the moslem brotherhood. Some think that the server was setup and data moved to it for the sole purpose of that data being hacked.

Lynch and Obama want the server case cleared and forgotten. This kills any chance of that happening. A congressional enquiry will be broadcast worldwide. Keeping the case alive and ensuring that in the end the congress itself can call a Grand Jury over Lynch's head. While the case is live Hillary is damaged. The left don't care, they don't know anything about classification and hate FOI except when a Republican is in the White house.

However the hard left is not enough to elect a democrat to any post they need independants. This will mean those independents will continue to stay away in droves. It means if Trump fails to seal the nomination and it's Ted Cruz in november Hillery may see millions of independents switch to him as an honest and hardworking alternative.

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Why Trump will lose in Cleveland.

Trump is relying on bound delegates to win but those arguing that the binding of delegates is disallowed in the party are now organized and publishing all the details. The Binding wording added in 2012 to block Ron Paul is now being exposed as only really valid for the 2012 convention and is up for revision in the first hours of the rules committee. It also did not work, see below.

Curly Haugland is fighting hard against bound candidates. The PDF linked to in the above link is free.

In simple terms it argues that a change in the wording of the rules was the dirty truck of 2012 and almost no one today supports it except Trump. Trump does not have the numbers in the rules committees and all delegates are unbound in the rules votes with Cruz way past 50% in those votes. This is why Cruz has persisted in getting his delegates into any vacant Trump spots. The Pledges on the first votes are unenforceable. They contradict all previous versions of the RNC rules except the 1976 one that was revoked in 1980.

The parties are private entities not governments. Corporate rules apply and the courts have confirmed the difference every time.
Also it's not been confirmed that over 17 Ron Paul supporters in the Nevada's delegation, 2012 republican convention, did not vote their pledge to Romney. They did not have the numbers but were not penalized and their floor vote, sans pledge, was fully recorded as a Ron Paul vote. That was the majority of the Nevada's delegation beaching their pledge in 2012. It never even made the news did it?

The election is in November the caucuses are not elections. Under American law they are all beauty contests and always were.

Trump keeps running foul of the residency rule in many states. A delegate must be a resident of the district that he or she represents. Here is the Clause for California. "What are the requirements for being a delegate? You must be a registered Republican and a resident of the Congressional District you are representing. You must attend the Delegation Meeting on Saturday, June 25, 2016 near LAX. You must commit to vote for the presidential candidate by whom you are selected."

In some cases Trump has either not found anyone or has not even submitted a list of prospective delegates. Note the last line " whom you are selected." If trump has not submitted the names then what does that wording mean?

Even rolling stone gets the implications. "It is exactly the kind of thing Trump -- back when he still had a rival for the nomination -- would have railed against as evidence the system is "rigged" against his bid. But it's not part of an establishment conspiracy to snatch the nomination from under him; it's just embarrassing proof that team Trump has failed to execute some of the most basic functions required of a competitive presidential campaign. " ... "Cruz was able to win the vast majority of the Washington delegates because, when his campaign still existed, staffers put together lists of their preferred delegates -- a state convention voters' guide. The Trump campaign (and the Kasich camp, for that matter) didn't perform this extremely basic task. "I never saw a slate for Trump candidates," Crabtree says."
           You dance with the guy that brung you.

Trump is conspicuously silent on this and it has happened in all of the west coast states. He either does not understand the process or is not intending to win but is taking that act all the way so as to leave Ted Cruz the only man standing. I still can't tell which. This failure to get delegates lined up, even after being called in by Reince Priebus for a lecture on the point, does not help Hillary Clinton it only helps Ted Cruz.

In the 12th district of California; Central San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi's district, Trump is allocated Peter Thiel a known libertarian and past Cruz supporter, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, former House committee chairman Darrell Issa and congressman Duncan Hunter Jr. There is no way Trump came up with that list. They are bound but How can the RNC sanction a billionaire and two sitting congressmen for not voting their pledge?

Cruz may beat Trump without the pledged delegate question. California is "winner take most" the worst worded electoral jargon on planet earth. In reality the state is proportional but at the district level. The winner of each district takes all 3 delegates but if Cruz gets 14 districts Trump is blocked at 1236. Trump only got 60% in Oregon unopposed.

This map is useful it shows how California's districts votes. As Gary North says go and vote against the Tax and bond propositions (even anarchist got to the polls to vote against these things). This is one of the best indicators of political positions. Personalities and political popularity is not in play in such a vote. Proposition was a special tax to pay for education (teachers inflated pensions) in bankrupt California. It failed.,_2012#/media/File:CA2012Prop30-NoColor.svg

Yes Associated Press says Trump already has 1239 but they are assuming California is Winner take all and they are surveying unpledged delegates without saying who, what question they're asking and when they did the survey.

Some think that if Trump loses at the convention there will be a backlash with Trump supporters however that does not work out either. We have seen record turnout at the primaries but Trump has only got 30 to 40 % of the vote. That means that 60 - 70 % of that massive turn out was there to oppose him. It's bigger than the total November 2012 republican vote. The christian conservatives are activated. Only a percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.

The religious people supporting him tend to be new-age Pentecostals powered by dodgy prophesies. A prompt re-interpretation of the vision follows every such folly.

In other words people will vote this time around. If Cruz wins at the convention the huge collective sigh of relief will result in people that would not have supported him six months ago would support him. Even the View TV show that cut Trump off mid sentence would have Cruz gladly as a replacement. He has proved that he has the people and the organization for a campaign.

If the financial crisis hit Cruz's first term he will take it and use it to push through the reforms that are needed. Any one else would just take damage and make the crisis deeper. The anti-Cruz members of the republican party will not be able to attack the man that faced down Trump.

I don't expect to be believed. However if I am right you will be the one person in the room that will understand what just happened! God is in control. He needs no organizing committees to set things up. If I am right he is putting someone in place, a Goldwater republican, to take the coming crisis and turn them into reform.

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Republican fun and chaos.

Now the real fun starts.

Ted Cruz has withdrawn. Trump will have 1237 at the republican convention at Cleveland next month.

I was of the opinion that Trump was running a decoy campaign for Cruz. I still think that that was part of someone's plan but it went wrong. I don't think Trump or Cruz were involved. Look for someone Trump has sidelined.

Trump has to fight Hillary but with what? Hillary is an easy scandal ridden candidate but has Trump been paying attention? All the attacks on her have already been made.

Now that Trump is only battling Kasich can he round on Kasich's history, background and policies? Again does he know them? Do they differ enough from his positions?

The greatest danger to Trump is always Trump. He has a month to go and plenty of opportunities to foul up.
Also now that Cruz is out of the picture, or so it seems, the media that has been supportive of Trump, because they hate Cruz's Christian conservatism, are now freed up to try and destroy Trump. And you know that the NeverTrump people will not let up.

Before it gets to the first vote Ted Cruz still has hundreds of delegates that are obligated to vote for Trump but who were banking on it being a hung first vote. What do they do now? If Trump stuffs up further some may decide to do the unthinkable at the first vote; Abstain.

Technically this means they have resigned and they could gladly and loudly do so. That is why all states have alternates. These alternates will step up to an unprecedented second First Vote. Some may vote and some may again abstain. Whole state delegations may take a stand.

Yes it would trigger a brawl, a genuine fist fight and the genuine risk of ending the republican political party. It would be an active decision by some to kick off and run another party by 2020, this year is not possible. A new conservative republican party for 2020. Would it win. No but it may get seats in some state houses. We will see thousands going over to the libertarians.

As several people have pointed out the US Two party system was always a coalition of multiple micro parties mistaken for factions. It only retained its position because other parties were blocked from registering and getting on the voter rolls and ballot papers. However the libertarians destroyed that barrier in all states a few years ago.

Trump would win on the second first vote but even that will be disputed by some because a second first vote is a contradiction. Some will say that the resignations on a first vote makes the next vote the second vote with freed delegates. Even Reince Priebus would be battling for order right beside Trump against that idea. It may come down to Cruz taking the microphone as conciliator. That would work but it would also speak much. Remember the thing will be watched by billions this year.

If no resignations occur Trump will be the nominee and the question will turn to the vice president vote. Rule 40 comes into play if they are still on the books.

Here it is in full. Read it carefully.
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

This means that Cruz is the only Vice President Trump can name on the day. Cruz has been the only person that Trump has ever talked about. Few people can think of an alternative.

This also means that if Trump is to pick any one else he and Cruz must co-operate in the rules committee to get that rule scrapped on day one. This problem would have excluded Carly Fiorina too. Yet Trumps people will see rule 40 as essential to block Kasich or anyone John Boehner likes. Oh what a wonderful corner the party has painted itself into.

It gets Better. The law was designed to block Ron Paul from any post but the Ron Paul delegates got angry and, then got organised and, now have a significant position on the rules committee. As semi libertarians they care about the issues than the party. As mostly tea party people (Paul), Trump and Cruz rules delegates see this as an outsider versus insiders battle. Tea party versus Rino not Trump versus Cruz.

Trump and Cruz have fought hard, very hard. Could too much damage have been done? Possibly but remember Ronald Reagan and George H Bush fought very hard too in 1980. Yet they teamed up. Most don't know that John Adams was the first Vice President and he ran against George Washington not with him. He was what in most other political systems would be called the leader of the opposition in the Vice President post. He hated it!

Would Cruz say no? It will be hard to say either thing. The questions will be: Can I tame this man? Who better to tame a lawless man than a lawyer that topped all his classes.
Will I lose all chances of running later if Trump or Hillary wins and I'm on the side lines?
Would America survive Trump or Hillary and still be intact in 2020?
Or will I be a guaranteed the presidency if Trump gets bored, impeached or just shot?
Would Trump run for a second term? That is highly unlikely.
How much damage to my reputation can I take and can I blame Rule 40b?
If Trump names someone really stupid that will make Ted Cruz's decision for him; 60-80% will demand him citing the rule.

As I said it's not really one factionalised party any more it's three or four jammed into a box called RNC. The same is emerging in the DNC too. The hard left, students and teachers, socialist faction is backing Bernie. While the wall street left, many Muslim lobby groups and a gaggle of aging feminists and LGBT activists are backing Hillary. The age of political fission is upon us.

It will be a hell of a show. Thankfully God is in control. It will be a day of Judgement but will it be judgement on the country or just the party? We shall see.

Thursday, April 07, 2016

Trump's Function.

It may not be Donald Trump's intention.
It may have been in the back of some of his staffers minds.
I think It's definitely God's plan.
Herding the sheep to the master. 
The republican party machine and the congress strongly opposed Ted Cruz. A true conservative was not acceptable. It would ruin their little deals, he would shut down pet projects, a factory in every state and district making one part for a tank. Cruz wants to shut down whole government departments because they are unconstitutional and ineffective. That scares the hell out of a republican congressman because if there are fewer departments there won't be as many bills to hide their earmarks in. Remember the left of any right wing party is just there to claw back a fair share of his voters taxes and redirect them away from socialist projects that he thinks is bad. Even Ron Paul did that.

Those that want the country to continue the spending spree hate Ted. The freight train of national bankruptcy is coming and Cruz, and even Trump, knows it. Reform must come. Yet the lobbyists and their pet politicians resist. They make no money from smaller government and simpler rules.

On his own Ted Cruz would have faced massive protests from the left, attacks from the Rino's and resistance from the RNC party machine at every caucus.
With Trump running they are all decoyed away. The left wing mobs organised by George Soros and the black lives matter people are at the Trump rallies shouting and being shouted down. As a result when Ted Cruz showed up in the Bronx this week only two protesters could find him. He had a chat to them.

With Trump running, dozens of terrified non conservative politicians have turned to Cruz. Some gave him the most unenthusiastic endorsements in human history but that was enough to win. I do not think there terror is based on the possibility that Hillary will beat Trump. They fear that Trump will damage Republican candidates running for the house, the senate and governor posts. Their greater fear is that Trump may win and then not know what to do with the oval office. (If Hillary disappears and it is Sanders then the republicans are guaranteed the white house. )

Trump has been getting the vote but in order to win in Cleveland Trump has to actually have people in the party on the ground in the states to allocate his winning delegate slots to. In some congressional districts he has failed that and the party found a bunch of eligible people standing around to fill those slots. Yes they are obligated to vote for Trump in the first one or two votes but they arrived on the Cruz bus. Always pays to carry a spare or two. This is what Trump was calling stealing the delegates. They were not stolen he never provided any delegate candidates in some places.

With Trump in front but not getting more that 30%, all the effort to manipulate the rules to shut Cruz out is rendered impossible. Any attempt to put a third man in will fail. Trump and Cruz have the votes to vote down any rules change to make John Kasich or Paul Ryan the candidate from nowhere. It will be Trump or Cruz not anyone else. The irony is that the rules that now block Kasich, Ryan, or any other candidate from nowhere, were put in place to block Ronald Reagan (successfully on his first two runs), Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan, and 4 years ago Ron Paul.

Early in the campaign I thought that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz were working together to tag team the others in the party that it was president Crumpz run. The question was not whether they would win but which would be the other guys vice president. Trump even named Cruz once using a joke nickname, Justin Bieber, and once directly. Sadly Trumps PAC supporters blew it all away by attacking Heidi Cruz. Yes someone, not actually on Ted Cruz's team but definitely anti-trump, attacked Trumps wife but frankly if you're going to run for President knowing your wife modeled nude someone's mentions it. You have no right to object or get insulted when that happens, it was obvious. Every other time someone mentioned those pictures Trump just bragged about her good looks. He was not wrong.

I do not believe that the National Enquirer attack on Cruz, with a not even convincing story of extramarital affairs, came from Donald Trump's camp. One of Trump's staff is pictured as one of the women. It may be Cruz's biggest mistake to assume it is from a Trump supporter. It is something some left wing would be scandal reporter cooked up to attack all of the republican candidates. It probably sat around on someone's desk since january. It's irrelevant. Anyone voting for Cruz knows it's fake. Anyone thinking it's real never remembers to vote.
Gawker just got sued for billions in damages over another scandal, hidden cameras in someone's bedroom, will get you bankrupting damages. Gawker is effectively propping up the National Enquirer financially. Gawker essentially is the web arm of the scandal mag. If one goes bankrupt they both do. So suddenly the unbelievably fake scandal on the editor's desk became his parting shot. You can't be sued if you're already bankrupt.

However Cruz and his supporters are making two errors of note. They are attributing all attacks on them as coming from Trump's team. I genuinely don't think Trumps team is that well organised. The attacks are coming from people, some of whom are openly democrats, but have a talent for getting Trump social media fans to follow their lead. Trump has a good media team but the one thing they can't do is shut down attacks on Cruz and others that come from outside. It does not help that Trump repeats them sometimes.

The second common mistake common with Cruz supporters (but not Ted himself) and all anti-trump people is to attack the Trump supporters as Trumpkins, Trumlings or just idiots. They are not fools. They are just really desperate and afraid. Most understand the threat of islam, the dangers of the politically correct social framework and the impact of trade on the industries they once worked for. But like almost everyone else they have not been given any solutions. Yes Ted Cruz and others have solutions but they are complex and detailed and based on ideas and premises that have not been taught in schools for three generations.

Trump supporters are not uneducated or less intelligent. They are miseducated and they know it and their angry and scared. They  see the problems but not the solutions. The most surprising thing is that we few who know of these complex and subtle solutions exist at all. Nothing taught in school got us where we are today. Cruz's teachers at harvard law school were all very left wing.

It is now clear that Trump has peaked and will continue getting 30% or less in the next few states. He may get 40-50% in New York but it is closed primary which favors Ted Cruz and it's Winner-take-most which also favors Ted. New York is a big state not just the city. The up state vote (rural New York) will not go the same way as the city vote. Trump may again win Congregational District delegate slots only to have no one available to fill those slots. Enter Cruz's spares again. Running for President does require a little planning.

I Expect Cruz to win on the second vote. I do not expect Trump to explode. He and his people will focus on stopping Kasich or any other candidate from nowhere from being parachuted in. This is actually a democrat party thing; it's never actually worked for a republican I don't think.
Trump will have two more months to come to terms with the fact that they don't have the ground game at the congressional district level. If he does not win the first vote out right he will switch to playing king maker. That role suits him fine, it gives him bragging rights without the workload.
Remember they worked so well together in the early part of the race against the Party favorites. At Cleveland if Trump does not have a clear majority it will turn into an outsiders versus the insiders. A battle between those that know that a recession is coming and government bankruptcy is pending; and those that want to kick the can one more term and hope for a miracle money tree to sprout somewhere on the Washington lawns.

Trump is the decoy candidate for Cruz. A candidate that is popular, enticing but just a little inferior to the other guy. A decoy product is a product that draws people to another product. It entices people away from the rest of the competition but is flawed relative to another product. This makes the choice binary and people put the decoy back on the shelf and buy the best.

As I said while someone in the wood work may have had this in mind only God can engineer such things. We are in a huge multilayered mess it will take a man of faith, law and genius to save the day; or at least mitigate the damage. Ted Cruz is the only candidate available and capable out there.